SECTION II - EXERCISE PHYSIOLOGY AND SPORTS MEDICINE / RESEARCH PAPER
Prediction of Exercise Tolerance in the Severe and Extreme
Intensity Domains by a Critical Power Model
1
Physical Effort Laboratory, Sports Center, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.
2
Human Performance Research Group, Center for Health Sciences and Sport, Santa Catarina State University, Florianopolis,
Brazil.
Submission date: 2023-01-30
Acceptance date: 2023-04-05
Online publication date: 2023-09-05
Corresponding author
Thiago Pereira Ventura
Department of Physical Education, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil
Department of Physical Education, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Brazil
Journal of Human Kinetics 2023;89:113–122
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
Exercise MetabolismPhysiological AssessmentSports TrainingSports Prediction and ModellingSport Performance Analysis
ABSTRACT
This study aimed to assess the predictive capability of different critical power (CP) models on cycling exercise
tolerance in the severe- and extreme-intensity domains. Nineteen cyclists (age: 23.0 ± 2.7 y) performed several time-toexhaustion
tests (Tlim) to determine CP, finite work above CP (W'), and the highest constant work rate at which maximal
oxygen consumption was attained (IHIGH). Hyperbolic power-time, linear power-inverse of time, and work-time models
with three predictive trials were used to determine CP and W'. Modeling with two predictive trials of the CP work-time
model was also used to determine CP and W'. Actual exercise tolerance of IHIGH and intensity 5% above IHIGH (IHIGH+5%)
were compared to those predicted by all CP models. Actual IHIGH (155 ± 30 s) and IHIGH+5% (120 ± 26 s) performances were
not different from those predicted by all models with three predictive trials. Modeling with two predictive trials
overestimated Tlim at IHIGH+5% (129 ± 33 s; p = 0.04). Bland-Altman plots of IHIGH+5% presented significant
heteroscedasticity by all CP predictions, but not for IHIGH. Exercise tolerance in the severe and extreme domains can be
predicted by CP derived from three predictive trials. However, this ability is impaired within the extreme domain.
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